SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 12 | Plaza Colonia | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Montevideo Wanderers | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 15 | -5 | 16 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 52.88%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Rentistas had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.57%) and 1-2 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Rentistas win it was 1-0 (7.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rentistas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
21.43% ( 0.66) | 25.69% ( 0.56) | 52.88% ( -1.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.88% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.48% ( -1.34) | 56.52% ( 1.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% ( -1.09) | 77.51% ( 1.09) |
| Rentistas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.4% ( -0.08) | 41.6% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.92% ( -0.07) | 78.08% ( 0.07) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.57% ( -1.04) | 21.43% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.55% ( -1.63) | 54.44% ( 1.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rentistas | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 7.82% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.16% Total : 21.43% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.67% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 13.73% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 10.57% ( -0.13)1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 5.43% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 4.76% ( -0.22)0-4 @ 2.09% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.1)1-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.09% Total : 52.87% |
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