SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Fenix | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Rentistas | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 16 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Nacional | 15 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 16 | 6 | 28 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
25.61% ( -0.46) | 25.82% ( -0.27) | 48.56% ( 0.73) |
| Both teams to score 49.92% ( 0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.51% ( 0.71) | 53.49% ( -0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.99% ( 0.6) | 75.01% ( -0.6) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.04% ( 0) | 35.96% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.26% ( 0) | 72.74% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.96% ( 0.63) | 22.04% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.62% ( 0.94) | 55.37% ( -0.94) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.23) 2-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.14% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.92% Total : 25.61% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 7.93% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.74% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.9% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 9.06% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 4.67% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 4.57% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.73% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.21% Total : 48.56% |
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