SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 19 | 15 | 39 |
| 3 | Boston River | 18 | 7 | 34 |
| 4 | Montevideo Wanderers | 19 | 8 | 31 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Deportivo Maldonado | 19 | 3 | 29 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 18 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 | Danubio | 18 | 1 | 25 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 54.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Boston River had a probability of 19.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Boston River win it was 1-0 (8.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boston River | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
19.62% ( 0.01) | 26.21% ( 0.02) | 54.16% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.21% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.93% ( -0.05) | 60.07% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.71% ( -0.04) | 80.29% ( 0.04) |
| Boston River Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.37% ( -0.02) | 45.63% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.57% ( -0.02) | 81.43% ( 0.02) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.64% ( -0.03) | 22.36% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.15% ( -0.05) | 55.85% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boston River | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.7% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.14% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.23% ( -0)3-2 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.62% Total : 19.62% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.2% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.52% ( -0)Other @ 0.5% Total : 26.21% | 0-1 @ 15.28% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 11.44% 1-2 @ 8.98% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.72% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.48% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.14% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 54.15% |
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