Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 57.39%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Villa Espanola had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.78%) and 1-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Villa Espanola win it was 1-0 (6.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
