Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.21%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 21.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.32%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
