SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 60.74%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 18.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.33%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 2-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
18.87% ( -0.16) | 20.39% ( -0.1) | 60.74% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 58.6% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.32% ( 0.21) | 37.68% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.08% ( 0.22) | 59.92% ( -0.23) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.62% ( -0.04) | 33.38% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30% ( -0.04) | 70% ( 0.04) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.97% ( 0.13) | 12.03% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.49% ( 0.28) | 37.5% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 2.42% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.98% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.07% Total : 18.87% | 1-1 @ 9.33% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 20.39% | 1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9% ( 0)0-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 6.98% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 6.36% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.69% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 3.37% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.56% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)Other @ 4.11% Total : 60.74% |
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