SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 78.62%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 7.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.33%) and 1-0 (10.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.73%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (2.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
78.62% ( -0.94) | 14.16% ( 0.56) | 7.22% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 43.76% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.88% ( -1.23) | 38.12% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.61% ( -1.32) | 60.39% ( 1.32) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.19% ( -0.48) | 7.81% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.28% ( -1.22) | 27.71% ( 1.22) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.46% ( 0.17) | 52.53% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.65% ( 0.11) | 86.35% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-0 @ 13.33% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 11.33% ( -0.16)1-0 @ 10.45% ( 0.36)2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 7.23% ( -0.28)4-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.15)5-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.24)5-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.14)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.24% Total : 78.6% | 1-1 @ 6.73% ( 0.27) 0-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.56% Total : 14.16% | 0-1 @ 2.64% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.42% Total : 7.22% |
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