SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 72.23%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 11.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 3-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.55%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (3.37%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
72.23% ( 0.37) | 16.33% ( -0.17) | 11.43% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.15% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.69% ( 0.28) | 34.31% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.79% ( 0.31) | 56.21% ( -0.31) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.71% ( 0.15) | 8.29% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.06% ( 0.37) | 28.93% ( -0.37) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.05% ( -0.14) | 40.95% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.49% ( -0.12) | 77.51% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Connah's Quay Nomads | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 2-0 @ 10.52% 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.74% ( 0.06)1-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 4.86% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.04% Total : 72.23% | 1-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.4% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.33% | 1-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.43% Total : 11.43% |
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