SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 35.73% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
39.33% ( 0.15) | 24.93% ( -0.03) | 35.73% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 57.9% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.56% ( 0.14) | 45.43% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.23% ( 0.13) | 67.76% ( -0.13) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.05% ( 0.14) | 22.94% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.28% ( 0.2) | 56.72% ( -0.2) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.14% ( -0.01) | 24.86% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.53% ( -0.01) | 59.46% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.92% | 1-2 @ 8.13% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.94% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.73% |
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