SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 46.3%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Cardiff MU in this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
29.63% ( -0.03) | 24.06% ( -0.03) | 46.3% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 58.64% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.52% ( 0.1) | 43.47% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.13% ( 0.1) | 65.87% ( -0.09) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.34% ( 0.03) | 27.66% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.79% ( 0.04) | 63.2% ( -0.04) |
| Cardiff MU Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.05% ( 0.06) | 18.95% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.53% ( 0.1) | 50.46% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Cardiff MU |
| 2-1 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.33% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.09% 3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.85% ( -0)4-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.87% Total : 29.63% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.06% | 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.25% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.17% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.3% Total : 46.3% |
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