SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 60.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 16.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.51%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
60.94% ( 0.04) | 22.28% ( 0.06) | 16.78% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 48.17% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.51% ( -0.41) | 49.49% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.48% ( -0.37) | 71.52% ( 0.37) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.22% ( -0.13) | 15.78% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.08% ( -0.23) | 44.92% ( 0.23) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.2% ( -0.37) | 42.8% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.88% ( -0.32) | 79.12% ( 0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.47% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 11.51% ( 0.09)2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.27% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.08% Total : 60.93% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.8% Total : 22.28% | 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.68% Total : 16.78% |
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