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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 28.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 1-2 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
47.23% ( 0.13) | 24.18% ( -0.4) | 28.59% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 57.52% ( 1.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.37% ( 1.95) | 44.63% ( -1.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33% ( 1.86) | 67% ( -1.86) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.97% ( 0.83) | 19.03% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.4% ( 1.36) | 50.6% ( -1.36) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.03% ( 1.2) | 28.97% ( -1.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.14% ( 1.46) | 64.86% ( -1.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.54)2-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.24% Total : 47.23% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.2)0-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.48)3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.18% | 1-2 @ 7.02% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.35)0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.46% Total : 28.59% |
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