SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Pen-y-Bont | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Cardiff MU | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Flint Town United | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 3 | 1 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Flint Town United had a probability of 35.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Flint Town United win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pen-y-Bont would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Flint Town United |
38.97% ( -0.13) | 25.64% ( 0) | 35.39% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 55.38% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.34% ( 0.01) | 48.66% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.22% ( 0.01) | 70.77% ( -0) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.42% ( -0.07) | 24.58% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.93% ( -0.1) | 59.07% ( 0.1) |
| Flint Town United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.43% ( 0.08) | 26.57% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.21% ( 0.11) | 61.78% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pen-y-Bont | Draw | Flint Town United |
| 1-0 @ 9.16% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.01% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.64% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 38.97% | 1-1 @ 12.14% 0-0 @ 6.53% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.63% | 0-1 @ 8.65% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 35.39% |
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