Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pen-y-Bont win with a probability of 52.9%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 24.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
