SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 46.8%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 29.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Canada | Draw | Uruguay |
46.8% ( 2.1) | 23.66% ( -0.35) | 29.54% ( -1.75) |
| Both teams to score 59.99% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.33% ( 0.74) | 41.67% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.93% ( 0.75) | 64.07% ( -0.75) |
| Canada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.96% ( 1.15) | 18.04% ( -1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.07% ( 1.94) | 48.93% ( -1.94) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.19% ( -0.76) | 26.81% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.9% ( -1.01) | 62.1% ( 1.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Canada | Draw | Uruguay |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.17) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.29)3-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.2)4-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.19)4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.67% Total : 46.8% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.66% | 1-2 @ 7.18% ( -0.29) 0-1 @ 6.37% ( -0.36)0-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.54% |
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