SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 65.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Ecuador in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Venezuela |
65.05% ( -0.3) | 21.61% ( 0.2) | 13.34% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 42.36% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47% ( -0.51) | 53% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.41% ( -0.44) | 74.59% ( 0.44) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.39% ( -0.27) | 15.61% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.39% ( -0.51) | 44.61% ( 0.51) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.2% ( -0.14) | 49.8% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.48% ( -0.1) | 84.52% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Venezuela |
| 1-0 @ 14.43% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 13.4% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 5.79% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.85% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.02% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.86% Total : 65.04% | 1-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.78% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.51% Total : 21.6% | 0-1 @ 5.42% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 3.51% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 13.34% |
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