Brazil will be motivated to produce a positive response after a disappointing Copa America campaign, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage to claim maximum points and extend their unbeaten run in head-to-head matches to 13 games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil win with a probability of 64.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.77%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Brazil in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Brazil.
-1.46) 
0.81) 
