SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 12.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.37%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-0 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Ecuador |
63.84% ( -1.14) | 23.26% ( 0.36) | 12.9% ( 0.78) |
| Both teams to score 37.17% ( 1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.48% ( 0.22) | 59.52% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.13% ( 0.17) | 79.87% ( -0.17) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.66% ( -0.33) | 18.34% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.55% ( -0.56) | 49.45% ( 0.56) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.52% ( 1.46) | 54.48% ( -1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.43% ( 0.86) | 87.57% ( -0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 16.94% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 14.37% ( -0.43)2-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.33)3-1 @ 4.93% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.45% ( -0.18)4-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.53% Total : 63.83% | 1-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.26% | 0-1 @ 6.07% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.14)Other @ 1.86% Total : 12.9% |
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