SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Caledonia win with a probability of 72.01%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 11.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Caledonia win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 1-2 (3.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Caledonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Caledonia | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
72.01% ( 0.05) | 16.59% ( 0.12) | 11.4% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.02% ( -1.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.32% ( -1.07) | 35.68% ( 1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.26% ( -1.19) | 57.74% ( 1.2) |
| New Caledonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.32% ( -0.25) | 8.68% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.11% ( -0.63) | 29.89% ( 0.63) |
| Papua New Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.06% ( -1.01) | 41.94% ( 1.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.62% ( -0.89) | 78.38% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Caledonia | Draw | Papua New Guinea |
| 2-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.9% ( 0.37)3-0 @ 8.86% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.13)5-0 @ 2.65% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.1)6-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 1% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.77% Total : 72.01% | 1-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.59% | 1-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 1.37% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.35% Total : 11.4% |
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