SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Australia | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 3 | Syria | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | India | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | North Korea | 3 | -11 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 70.75%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for North Korea had a probability of 10.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.03%) and 3-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.67%), while for a North Korea win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uzbekistan | Draw | North Korea |
70.75% ( 0.08) | 18.26% ( 0.14) | 10.99% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 45.5% ( -1.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.25% ( -1.26) | 44.75% ( 1.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.88% ( -1.23) | 67.11% ( 1.22) |
| Uzbekistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.61% ( -0.33) | 11.38% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.87% ( -0.72) | 36.12% ( 0.71) |
| North Korea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.34% ( -1.23) | 48.65% ( 1.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.29% ( -0.9) | 83.71% ( 0.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uzbekistan | Draw | North Korea |
| 2-0 @ 13.07% ( 0.36) 1-0 @ 12.03% ( 0.49)3-0 @ 9.47% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.14)5-0 @ 2.24% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.43% Total : 70.73% | 1-1 @ 8.67% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.54% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.65% Total : 18.26% | 0-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.44% Total : 10.99% |
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