With the two teams sitting level on 13 points, we think that Tuesday's contest will prove to be a close-fought affair and that Iran will make full use of home advantage to claim a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 28.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
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