Given the stakes of Sunday's game, we anticipate a thrilling contest at the King Zwelithini Stadium with both nations having a go at each other for the title. Zambia are more experienced at the stage of the tournament, and while we expect Lesotho to put up a fight, we fancy them coming out with the win in normal time.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 19.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.96%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.59%), while for a Lesotho win it was 1-0 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Zambia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Zambia.
0.35) 
-0.18) 
