Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Ingolstadt 04 win with a probability of 48.68%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 25.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Ingolstadt 04 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 0-1 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Ingolstadt 04 would win this match.
