Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 67.9%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 14.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 1-0 (8.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.14%), while for a Erzgebirge Aue win it was 1-2 (4.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
