Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 34.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ilves in this match.
