Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 45.72%. A win for Ilves had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.07%). The likeliest Ilves win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.
