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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 53.77%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 23.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.47%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
23.95% ( 0.34) | 22.27% ( 0.23) | 53.77% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 59.69% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.23% ( -0.73) | 39.77% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.87% ( -0.76) | 62.13% ( 0.77) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.08% ( -0.12) | 29.92% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.97% ( -0.15) | 66.02% ( 0.15) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.18% ( -0.44) | 14.82% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.89% ( -0.84) | 43.11% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.16% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.07% Total : 23.95% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.27% | 1-2 @ 9.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.16)0-2 @ 8.08% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 5.14% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 2.96% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 2.46% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.06)1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.11% Total : 53.77% |
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