SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 67.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Perth Glory had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.06%), while for a Perth Glory win it was 1-0 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
13.59% ( -0.15) | 19.12% ( -0.03) | 67.3% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 50.71% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.89% ( -0.23) | 42.11% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.49% ( -0.23) | 64.51% ( 0.23) |
| Perth Glory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.34% ( -0.37) | 42.66% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.99% ( -0.32) | 79.01% ( 0.32) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.44% ( -0.02) | 11.56% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.5% ( -0.04) | 36.5% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Perth Glory | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 1-0 @ 4.2% 2-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.46% Total : 13.59% | 1-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.96% Total : 19.12% | 0-2 @ 11.48% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.11)1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 8.26% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 7.03% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 4.45% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 3.79% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.69% Total : 67.29% |
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