SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 19.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.25%) and 0-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Wellington Phoenix win it was 2-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
19.19% ( 0.11) | 20.91% ( 0.06) | 59.9% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 57.32% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.36% ( -0.13) | 39.63% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.02% ( -0.13) | 61.98% ( 0.13) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.79% ( 0.04) | 34.21% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.09% ( 0.04) | 70.9% ( -0.04) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.12% ( -0.09) | 12.87% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.73% ( -0.18) | 39.27% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.9% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.19% | 1-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.4% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 9.93% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.25% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 6.78% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 6.32% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.24% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.43% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.62% Total : 59.9% |
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