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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 52.3%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.15%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
52.3% ( 0.69) | 21.8% ( 0.05) | 25.9% ( -0.73) |
| Both teams to score 63.65% ( -0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.47% ( -0.89) | 35.53% ( 0.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.42% ( -0.99) | 57.58% ( 0.99) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.18% ( -0.09) | 13.82% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.83% ( -0.19) | 41.17% ( 0.19) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.85% ( -0.98) | 26.14% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.78% ( -1.33) | 61.22% ( 1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.23% 4-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.89% Total : 52.3% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.35% Total : 21.8% | 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 4.85% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.27% Total : 25.9% |
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