SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 57.95%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Macarthur had a probability of 20.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 1-0 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Macarthur win it was 1-2 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Central Coast Mariners would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Macarthur |
57.95% ( 0.22) | 21.26% ( -0.07) | 20.79% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 58.85% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.12% ( 0.14) | 38.88% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.8% ( 0.15) | 61.19% ( -0.15) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.79% ( 0.11) | 13.21% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.05% ( 0.22) | 39.95% ( -0.22) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.8% ( -0.05) | 32.19% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.32% ( -0.06) | 68.68% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.71% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.37% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.98% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.61% Total : 57.95% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.25% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.82% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.47% Total : 20.79% |
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