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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 32.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 2-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
32.96% ( 0.36) | 24.83% ( 0.13) | 42.21% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 57.61% ( -0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.46% ( -0.46) | 45.54% ( 0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.14% ( -0.44) | 67.86% ( 0.44) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.46% ( 0) | 26.54% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.26% ( -0) | 61.74% ( 0) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.41% ( -0.42) | 21.59% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.32% ( -0.64) | 54.68% ( 0.65) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 7.73% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 5.04% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 32.96% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.83% | 1-2 @ 8.93% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 6.73% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.56% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.51% Total : 42.22% |
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