SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 46.74%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.44%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
46.74% ( -1.34) | 23.07% ( 0.01) | 30.18% ( 1.33) |
| Both teams to score 62.53% ( 0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.5% ( 0.75) | 38.5% ( -0.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.2% ( 0.79) | 60.79% ( -0.79) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.17% ( -0.21) | 16.83% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.18% ( -0.38) | 46.82% ( 0.38) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.18% ( 1.23) | 24.81% ( -1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.59% ( 1.68) | 59.4% ( -1.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.33)2-0 @ 6.63% ( -0.34)3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.26% Total : 46.74% | 1-1 @ 10.37% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.07% | 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0.2) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.06% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.16)0-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.11)2-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.63% Total : 30.19% |
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