Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Elfsborg had a probability of 21.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.71%), while for a Elfsborg win it was 0-1 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Malmo in this match.