SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 35.45%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 31.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 2-1 (6.67%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (13.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Boca Juniors |
35.45% ( -1.13) | 31.53% ( 0.66) | 33.01% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 38.25% ( -1.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.38% ( -1.78) | 69.62% ( 1.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.01% ( -1.16) | 86.99% ( 1.17) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.73% ( -1.77) | 37.27% ( 1.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.94% ( -1.79) | 74.06% ( 1.79) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.98% ( -0.67) | 39.02% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.26% ( -0.63) | 75.74% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 14.35% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 7.08% ( -0.22)2-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.33)3-0 @ 2.33% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.22)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.8% Total : 35.45% | 0-0 @ 14.54% ( 0.93) 1-1 @ 13.5% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.34% Total : 31.52% | 0-1 @ 13.68% ( 0.64) 0-2 @ 6.44% ( 0.19)1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.53% Total : 33.01% |
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