SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 61.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 61.25% | 21.78% | 16.97% |
| Both teams to score 50.11% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.66% | 69.34% |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.12% | 14.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.77% | 43.23% |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.87% | 41.13% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.33% | 77.67% |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 11.66% 2-0 @ 11.1% 2-1 @ 9.87% 3-0 @ 7.05% 3-1 @ 6.27% 4-0 @ 3.36% 4-1 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 2.78% 4-2 @ 1.33% 5-0 @ 1.28% 5-1 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.42% Total : 61.24% | 1-1 @ 10.35% 0-0 @ 6.12% 2-2 @ 4.38% Other @ 0.92% Total : 21.77% | 0-1 @ 5.44% 1-2 @ 4.6% 0-2 @ 2.42% 1-3 @ 1.36% 2-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.86% Total : 16.98% |
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