SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.61%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Arsenal Sarandi had a probability of 17.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.61%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for an Arsenal Sarandi win it was 0-1 (6.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
58.61% ( 0.24) | 23.64% ( -0.13) | 17.74% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 46.04% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.66% ( 0.31) | 53.33% ( -0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.12% ( 0.26) | 74.88% ( -0.26) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.04% ( 0.2) | 17.95% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.21% ( 0.34) | 48.79% ( -0.34) |
| Arsenal Sarandi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.11% ( 0.04) | 43.88% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.97% ( 0.03) | 80.03% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Arsenal Sarandi |
| 1-0 @ 13.53% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 11.61% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.35% Total : 58.6% | 1-1 @ 11.14% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 3.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.68% Total : 23.64% | 0-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.26% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.65% Total : 17.74% |
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