SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 51.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 23.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Defensa y Justicia win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gimnasia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Gimnasia.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
51.94% ( 1.61) | 24.28% ( -0.23) | 23.78% ( -1.38) |
| Both teams to score 52.79% ( -0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.18% ( -0.25) | 48.81% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.08% ( -0.23) | 70.91% ( 0.22) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.23% ( 0.54) | 18.77% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.83% ( 0.9) | 50.17% ( -0.9) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.99% ( -1.32) | 35% ( 1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.25% ( -1.42) | 71.75% ( 1.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 10.99% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.4)3-1 @ 5.38% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.19% Total : 51.94% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.27% | 0-1 @ 6.9% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 3.62% ( -0.23)1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.05% Total : 23.78% |
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