SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
39.46% ( 0.25) | 27.51% ( -0.03) | 33.03% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 48.92% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.31% ( 0.09) | 56.69% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.35% ( 0.07) | 77.65% ( -0.08) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.97% ( 0.19) | 28.03% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.31% ( 0.24) | 63.69% ( -0.24) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.98% ( -0.1) | 32.02% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.52% ( -0.11) | 68.48% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 11.41% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.11% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.85% Total : 39.45% | 1-1 @ 13% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.71% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.51% | 0-1 @ 10.22% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.4% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 33.03% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
