Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 9

Jul 20, 2022 at 11pm UK

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Defensa
2 - 1
Independiente

Duarte (28'), Frias (64' pen.)
Duarte (33'), Gutierrez (51')
Gutierrez (78')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Vigo (90+1')
Marcone (13'), Romero (36'), Pozzo (64'), Rodriguez (62'), Fernandez (72'), Vigo (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Argentine Primera Division clash between Defensa y Justicia and Independiente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Independiente

There is very little to separate the sides right now, and we expect a tight affair in this one with the teams cancelling each other out and settling for a point apiece in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 46.32%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.

Result
Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Independiente
46.32% ( 0.6)	26.82% ( 0.2)	26.86% ( -0.8)

Both teams to score 48.06% (

-1.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.59% (

-1.18)

56.41% (

1.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.58% (

-0.97)

77.42% (

0.96)

Defensa y Justicia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.67% (

-0.23)

24.33% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.29% (

-0.33)

58.71% (

0.33)

Independiente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.5% (

-1.3)

36.5% (

1.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.71% (

-1.33)

73.29% (

1.33)

Score Analysis

Defensa y Justicia 46.32%

Independiente 26.86%

Draw 26.82%

Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Independiente
1-0 @ 12.55% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.48% Total : 46.32%	1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.78% Total : 26.82%	0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.21) 0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.12) Other @ 1.86% Total : 26.86%