SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 46.32%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 26.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (8.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Independiente |
46.32% ( 0.6) | 26.82% ( 0.2) | 26.86% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 48.06% ( -1.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.59% ( -1.18) | 56.41% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.58% ( -0.97) | 77.42% ( 0.96) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.67% ( -0.23) | 24.33% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.29% ( -0.33) | 58.71% ( 0.33) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.5% ( -1.3) | 36.5% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.71% ( -1.33) | 73.29% ( 1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 12.55% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 4.21% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.48% Total : 46.32% | 1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.88% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.78% Total : 26.82% | 0-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.12)Other @ 1.86% Total : 26.86% |
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