SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Aldosivi had a probability of 15.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for an Aldosivi win it was 0-1 (6.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Aldosivi |
60.98% ( 0.64) | 23.16% ( 0.01) | 15.86% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 43.82% ( -1.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.67% ( -1.06) | 54.33% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.28% ( -0.89) | 75.72% ( 0.9) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% ( -0.15) | 17.47% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.05% ( -0.27) | 47.95% ( 0.27) |
| Aldosivi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.1% ( -1.51) | 46.9% ( 1.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.59% ( -1.16) | 82.41% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Aldosivi |
| 1-0 @ 14.29% ( 0.51) 2-0 @ 12.47% ( 0.39)2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 5.49% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.12)5-0 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.38% Total : 60.97% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.57% Total : 23.16% | 0-1 @ 6.2% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.2)0-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.28% Total : 15.86% |
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