SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 47.15%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 25.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.33%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Patronato |
47.15% ( 0.25) | 27.22% ( 0.27) | 25.63% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 46.01% ( -1.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.42% ( -1.27) | 58.58% ( 1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.86% ( -1) | 79.15% ( 1) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.11% ( -0.44) | 24.89% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.49% ( -0.62) | 59.51% ( 0.62) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.25% ( -1.16) | 38.75% ( 1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.52% ( -1.12) | 75.49% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Patronato |
| 1-0 @ 13.41% ( 0.47) 2-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.21)2-1 @ 8.84% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.1% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 1.5% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.43% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.27% Total : 47.14% | 1-1 @ 12.71% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 9.65% ( 0.46)2-2 @ 4.19% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.22% | 0-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 6.03% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.53% Total : 25.64% |
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