SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 (11.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Boca Juniors in this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Boca Juniors |
33.47% ( 1.81) | 28.4% ( 0.98) | 38.13% ( -2.79) |
| Both teams to score 46.42% ( -2.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.14% ( -3.2) | 59.86% ( 3.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.87% ( -2.51) | 80.13% ( 2.5) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.65% ( -0.4) | 33.35% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.03% ( -0.44) | 69.97% ( 0.44) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.64% ( -3.15) | 30.36% ( 3.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.46% ( -3.92) | 66.55% ( 3.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Boca Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 11.11% ( 1.16) 2-1 @ 7.28% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.58)3-1 @ 2.66% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.49% Total : 33.46% | 1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 10.12% ( 1.15)2-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.34)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.39% | 0-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.53)0-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.4)1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.52)0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.44)2-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.31)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.26)Other @ 2.3% Total : 38.13% |
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