Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 51.42%. A win for Rosario Central had a probability of 24.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest Rosario Central win was 0-1 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.
