Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lanus in this match.
