Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 52.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
