SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 63.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 13.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.32%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Independiente |
63.8% ( -1.09) | 22.28% ( 0.65) | 13.91% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 41.94% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.59% ( -1.57) | 54.41% ( 1.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.22% ( -1.32) | 75.78% ( 1.32) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.49% ( -0.9) | 16.51% ( 0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.75% ( -1.64) | 46.25% ( 1.65) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.24% ( -0.27) | 49.76% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.51% ( -0.19) | 84.49% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 14.79% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 13.32% 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 8% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.22)4-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.23)4-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.18)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.53% Total : 63.79% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.49)2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.49% Total : 22.27% | 0-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.57% Total : 13.91% |
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