Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Lorenzo win with a probability of 36.52%. A draw had a probability of 32.1% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 31.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Lorenzo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.44%) and 2-1 (6.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.39%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (13.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.
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