While San Lorenzo no longer having continental distractions means a resurgence could be imminent, the safer bet would be backing the hitherto undefeated Union to nick a marginal victory over the winless away side in Santa Fe.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 48.65%. A draw had a probability of 31.9% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 19.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (6.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (17.73%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.29) 
