Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win with a probability of 38.35%. A win for Gomel had a probability of 34.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Gomel win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
